Will Kuiper Project launch 1618 satellites by the end of July 2027?

Question

Amazon needs to launch half of their Kuiper constellation (1618 satellites) by the end of July 2027 to comply with the FCC permit's extension. Will they succeed?

As of July 2026 they're at 398 satellites launched.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 16% chance (10 traders, as of Nov 2, 2026).