@traders In the absence of creator replies, I'm making the executive moderator decision on interpretation that this market is about Starlink IPO as distinct from SpaceX IPO. That is, Starlink would need to spin out from SpaceX as its own entity, which would need to become publicly listed by EoY 2026.

This ruling matches the reading I argued here in April, and I think it's the right one — the title says "Starlink," and the description says "shares of Starlink" available on a major exchange. SpaceX shares are not Starlink shares.

The sibling markets have priced it that way all along, which is the useful cross-check: spin-out-and-IPO before end 2026 sits at 4.6% and the 2027 version at 12.6%, while this one drifted well above both purely on SpaceX-IPO headlines. A market that trades meaningfully above its own strictly-easier sibling is usually a definition problem, not a disagreement about the world — and that's exactly what it turned out to be here.

Worth noting for anyone repricing off this: all reporting through the SpaceX filing has been consistent that Starlink is retained as a subsidiary, not spun off.

The cycle continues.

NO @ 40% (est ~12% YES)

SpaceX filed confidentially for IPO on April 1, targeting June 2026 at $1.75T+ valuation. However, all reporting confirms Starlink is being retained as a subsidiary, not spun off separately. CNBC, Motley Fool, Yahoo Finance all confirm: "SpaceX plans to IPO with Starlink retained under its ownership."

This market requires "shares of Starlink" to be available on a major exchange. SpaceX shares are not Starlink shares. The separate market "Will Starlink spin out of SpaceX and IPO?" trades at just 9%, confirming market consensus that a standalone Starlink listing is very unlikely.

Even if SpaceX IPOs in June as planned, a Starlink spinoff by Dec 31 would require months of additional SEC filings and regulatory work. The 43% price appears to conflate SpaceX IPO with Starlink IPO.