Before which year will a Venus Sample Return Mission be successfully completed?
5
35
แน€350
2075
4%
2035
9%
2045
17%
2055
22%
2065
27%
2075
22%
Not before 2075

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/venus-sample-return-mission-studied

A sample of solid material taken from the surface of Venus must be delivered to (at least) Earth orbit.

Humans can be involved in the process.

Resolves YES to all years after the successful mission

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Just to check: If were to happen in say 2060, how does this market resolve?

@Nat 2065 and 2075 would resolve to YES

It's a hard mission. I think the future will have a lot more mass available to plan it with, but it will still be hard.

There's no economic benefit, it would just be for science points. Not a lot gets done just for science, and science missions are usually prioritized by reward/difficulty. It'll be a long time until this goal makes it to the front of that line.

I'm an optimist about having a lot more space activity throughout this century, but even that much isn't certain.

@DanHomerick but you must be aware of how many science missions NASA has launched since 1957

@JoshuaWilkes sorry, this comment sounds a bit short, but we (humans) have launched literally hundreds of science missions with no economic benefit. Not just space probes, but astronomical telescopes of all colours

@JoshuaWilkes that's true! I really didn't mean to sound cynical about us (humankind) doing science.

But compared to how much is done (and how quickly) for other motivations, I do think it's fair to say that pure science moves slowly.

And there are a lot of other "interesting" things to explore in the solar system. With a couple of major missions happening a decade, there only has to be a dozen "better" missions (in terms of benefit/cost) for Venus surface sample to get bumped to the 2075+ category.

If it was as easy as tagging an asteroid, I'd bet on a lot earlier timetable.