[tweet]Not sure how to define the criteria on this since it consists of many different components. Someone have any good suggestions? For now I've got this: If PPE or HALO is never launched, the date of that decision counts. If PPE and HALO are both launched, the date of the decision to never send humans there anymore counts. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Mqrius/before-when-will-sls-be-cancelled-Q00SAhqLc9)Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): If Gateway is launched into any orbit around the moon (not just NRHO), it still counts as Gateway If Gateway is launched but not in orbit around the moon, it counts as cancelled/abandoned Update 2026-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Repurposing PPE to fly to Mars and HALO for a moon base (rather than using them for Gateway) counts as Gateway being cancelled/abandoned for resolution purposes.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2027, followed by 2028 and 2029 are most likely. See the market for live updates (11 traders, as of Aug 18, 2026).

Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

MANIFOLD

Before when will Gateway be cancelled/abandoned?

Ṁ1kṀ5.1k

2029

ALL

98.2%

2027

98%

2028

98%

2029

Not sure how to define the criteria on this since it consists of many different components. Someone have any good suggestions? For now I've got this:

If PPE or HALO is never launched, the date of that decision counts. If PPE and HALO are both launched, the date of the decision to never send humans there anymore counts.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):

If Gateway is launched into any orbit around the moon (not just NRHO), it still counts as Gateway
If Gateway is launched but not in orbit around the moon, it counts as cancelled/abandoned

Update 2026-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Repurposing PPE to fly to Mars and HALO for a moon base (rather than using them for Gateway) counts as Gateway being cancelled/abandoned for resolution purposes.

Market context

Space

Commercial spaceflight

Artemis program

NASA

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I'll resolve this as Before 2027. If that turns out to be wrong we can re-open it.

@Mqrius
What prevents reverting back to an orbiting station is the active reallocation of funds, physical redesign of built hardware for surface use, and locked-in multi-year budget phases.
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@ChristopherRandles Yeah sounds about right. It would be pretty hard to do and would require making several things from scratch as they've been repurposed.

It's not really canceled yet (NASA is just "shifting focus"), but the PPE has been repurposed to fly to Mars with SR-1 Freedom, and it looks like they want to repurpose HALO for the moon base, so I guess for this market it can be considered abandoned?

@dp9000 Hmm yeah I agree this basically counts. Do we know how certain it is? It seems pretty solidified and I can't really imagine them going back to standard gateway after this.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@Mqrius Can before 2026 resolve no or am I misinterpreting that?

@ChristopherRandles Yeah you're right, from what I see PPE and HALO are still scheduled to be launched.

If Gateway is moved somewhere else, not NRHO, how should this resolve?

I'm deciding that if it's still launched into some orbit around the moon, then it still counts. If it's not in orbit around the moon then it doesn't count.

Feel free to argue against it in the next 2 days, then it's settled