What will be true about GPT-4.5?
151
1.5K
8.5K
2025
80%
It won't release during 2024
3%
It will release in April 2024 or before
13%
It will release between May and October 2024
1.9%
It will release in November 2024
2%
It will release in December 2024
19%
Its knowledge cutoff will be in or before April 2024
6%
Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in May 2024
11%
Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in June 2024
19%
Its knowledge cutoff will be in or later than July 2024
19%
It will support at least 199.5k context
19%
It will support at least 499.5k context
17%
It will support at least 999.5k context
18%
It will be cheaper than GPT-4 Turbo
19%
OpenAI will claim it faster than GPT-4 Turbo
19%
It will have a different logo color from green, black, or purple(based on resolution of https://manifold.markets/MiraBot/what-color-will-the-next-openai-llm?r=TWlyYUJvdA)
19%
It will be trending on Twitter the day of release. A name like "GPT", "OpenAI", "GPT-4.5" could all count. Checked from a clean account.
3%
It will be considered AGI by the New York times
3%
It will be considered AGI by Wikipedia 3 months after release (can happen before but the check should be made at 3 months)
2%
It will be considered AGI by OpenAI
19%
It will sota at the time of release (highest score on lmsys arena)

Variations like "GPT-4.5", "GPT-4.5 Turbo", "GPT-4 Turbo 2.0" all count. Must use separate branding but remain in the GPT-4 family: A model id update to "GPT-4 Turbo" or "GPT-4" wouldn't count. GPT-5 won't count either.

Add your own options. One who creates an option is responsible for clarifying follow-up questions. @Mira may interpret them if not, or resolve the option NA.

If GPT-4.5 is not released in 2024 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently.

If GPT-4.5 is released, moderators should close this market for trading immediately.

Resolution tags. Place at the beginning of an option to change how it resolves.

  • Default: Option resolves NO by default at end of 2024

  • Conditional(2024): Option resolves NA by default at end of 2024

  • Ambiguous(2025): Option resolves 50% by default at end of 2025.

See also: /MiraBot/what-will-be-true-about-gpt5

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It won't release during 2024

I'm definitely rules lawyer-ing this, but technically you could argue that no matter what this option resolves NO, right? Since "If GPT-4.5 is not released in 2024 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently" and there's no resolution tag on the answer. So if GPT-4.5 does get released in 2024 then it resolves NO by the text of the answer, and if GPT-4.5 doesn't get released then we hit the end of 2024 and the default NO resolution activates. [You could argue the "unless specified to resolve differently" kicks in here but that would spoil the fun...]

@A I actually thought about that when I wrote it a couple days ago, but no it will resolve YES if GPT-4.5 isn't released.

It probably is a good idea to have this notice above all the bets rather than 2 pages down on my large vertical monitor. But if an official Manifold account is going to be taking notice and editing my titles, they can implement "pre-bet descriptions" or clustering the table into sections which are each locally sorted and have titles or any number of other UI options. Any of them is fine.

But this looks ugly, and I'm not going to accept it as my market title. You can make a better UI if you care that much - I would use it.

I should probably mention that the /Mira/what-will-be-true-about-gpt5 and /Mira_/what-modalities-will-gpt-45-have-ja markets have the same clause.

@Mira Fair enough, it is a bit of an ugly title. I'll pass the idea along.

how about [All options resolve NO if no GPT-4.5] or [All options resolve NO if no GPT-4.5 before 2025]? I think it's quite misleading to have the title as it is

"What will be true of GPT-4.5 in 2024?"

"What will be true of GPT-4.5 in 2024?"

I think 90% of readers wouldn't notice the subtlety there before betting. I probably wouldn't

The basic premise here is that almost nobody reads the description before betting, including many power users, and it sucks if you bet YES on 'gpt-4.5 will know what 1 + 1 is' and it resolves no

I actually have no idea how many people read the description, that's worth asking.

@traders did you guys read the description?

@Joshua I did

@Joshua I don’t if the title is seemingly unambiguous, but do if I’m curious about resolution criteria/etc

@Joshua I always read the descriptions. If someone bet without reading it, it's their fault unless the title was deliberately misleading or the description was deliberately long and convoluted.

@Joshua I read it, but only because Mira's markets sometimes have unexpected but crucial things like that that have burned me before. It is completely normal for me to bet in markets like this without reading the description, and I definitely think people who read it are extracting mana here on expectation from those who didn't.

Guys: You should prefer this style for the same reason that you should prefer joint markets instead of conditional. The probability that an actual resolution happens is related to the amount of extra liquidity that a market consumes: Like those nuclear markets with "amplified odds" have a higher probability but have effectively reduced leverage by externalizing the liquidity. Conditional markets externalize the use of extra liquidity, this internalizes it but you need to work with spreads instead of single legs.

Also: @Gen @SirSalty can you guys keep your badgers under control? I don't mind @Joshua pointing out the NO resolution issue below, that's important context even just as a trader; but now they're editing my titles, pinging all my traders, the majority of comments are now about an issue they created and not GPT-4.5 news/rumors, and @jacksonpolack hasn't even bet on the market and is just inviting himself in to express opinions I don't care about.

: You should prefer this style for the same reason that you should prefer joint markets instead of conditional

I don't want my bet on 'will the knowledge cutoff be after June' to also be a bet on if it'll release before 2025! That's just confusing. A joint market would be a linked MC with three options 'knowledge cutoff before June, knowledge cutoff after June, not released'.

and @jacksonpolack hasn't even bet on the market and is just inviting himself in to express opinions I don't care about.

I would have bet if it was 'resolve n/a if not released' instead of 'resolve no', hence the opinions. I don't think I have taken any badge actions on this

@jacksonpolack If they change it so that mega-markets can have clusters of linked options but each cluster is independent, then that would be even better I agree. That's another suggestion that was in my top-level comment.

At this point I think the simplest solution is that anyone who wants an N/A clause can just submit a conditional option like I did, and traders will see that some options resolve N/A and some don't.

Given that no one has complained so far, I do think Mira is right that we run the risk of making a mountain out of mole hill.

I'd probably add a (read description) tag to the title if I were Mira but Manifold should just add a tag for that.

If people want a version of this market where all options resolve N/A if they skip to GPT-5 then I think someone should make that market and it would get a lot of traders.

bought Ṁ25 It will support at l... NO

Hahahahahaha I just realized what's going on here. Mira is, as always, a magnificent bastard. She doesn't even think there will be a GPT 4.5!

She thinks they're going to skip to 5! And per the description...

GPT-5 won't count either.

If GPT-4.5 is not released in 2024 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently.

@Joshua i was first

bought Ṁ45 It won't release dur... YES
impressed ron burgundy GIF

Thank you.

It will start out at the #1 spot on the HuggingFace leaderboard when it is added

oh wait this one is a duplicate oops

sold Ṁ15 It will start out at... YES

@dominic Resolve N/A?

@12c498e I don’t think I can because I’m not the market creator

reposted

Guys, instead of separate GPT-4.5 markets every time there's a rumor, add your rumors and speculations to this market so we have them all in one place.

This is the "home base" for all GPT-4.5 rumors.

@Mira 4.5 doesnt exist