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2027
37%
chance

Resolves Yes if OpenAI releases a model called GPT 5.5 before 2027.

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predicts NO

Personally, I feel like neither GPT-4.5 or GPT-5.5 is very likely. In the case of GPT-3.5, it was a very idiosyncratic situation where they had a model that could generate any text, and then they modified that model to follow instructions, which significantly changed what it could do. On the other hand, GPT-4 already follows instructions. Maybe they could make a change to GPT-4 or GPT-5 that's comparable in size to the change they made to GPT-3 to get GPT-3.5, but it's far from assured that they'll do that instead of focusing on training another brand-new model.

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