What will be true about GPT-5?

257

6.5kṀ56k

2026

Its knowledge cutoff will be in or before April 2024

Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in May 2024

10%

Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in June 2024

92%

Its knowledge cutoff will be in or later than July 2024

82%

It will support at least 199.5k context

46%

It will support at least 499.5k context

32%

It will support at least 999.5k context

50%

Output tokens will be cheaper than GPT-4 Turbo(as of March 12, 2024)

30%

OpenAI will claim it faster than GPT-4 Turbo

74%

It will have a different logo color from green, black, or purple(based on resolution of https://manifold.markets/MiraBot/what-color-will-the-next-openai-llm?r=TWlyYUJvdA)

95%

It will be trending on Twitter the day of release. A name like "GPT", "OpenAI", "GPT-5" could all count. Checked from a clean account.

88%

It will be able to translate a page of manga (JP image -> EN text)

11%

Will be claimed to be AGI by the New York times up to 3 months after release.

Will be claimed to be AGI by OpenAI up to 3 months after release.

Will be claimed to be AGI by Wikipedia up to 3 months after release.

36%

It will use a new architecture meaningfully different from GPT-4

There will be credible reporting that it is or was "excessively horny" either before or up to three months after release

25%

It will be ranked the highest model on the LMSys Chatbot Arena, and not overtaken by another model, 3 months after the release date.

85%

It will be trained on reasoning traces from o1/o3 type models

31%

It will be able to pass jim's "agents benchmark"

"GPT-5" refers to a model named or presented as "GPT-5"(or a variation). This can be the model id, or a description like "the fifth generation of the GPT series". Benchmarks and features are not considered: Only how the model is presented by OpenAI.

Add your own options. One who creates an option is responsible for clarifying follow-up questions. @Mira may interpret them if not, or resolve the option NA.

If GPT-5 is not released by end of 2025 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently.

If GPT-5 is released, moderators should close this market for trading immediately.

Resolution tags. Place at the beginning of an option to change how it resolves.