"GPT-5" refers to a model named or presented as "GPT-5"(or a variation). This can be the model id, or a description like "the fifth generation of the GPT series". Benchmarks and features are not considered: Only how the model is presented by OpenAI.
Add your own options. One who creates an option is responsible for clarifying follow-up questions. @Mira may interpret them if not, or resolve the option NA.
If GPT-5 is not released by end of 2025 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently.
If GPT-5 is released, moderators should close this market for trading immediately.
Resolution tags. Place at the beginning of an option to change how it resolves.
Default: Option resolves NO by default at end of 2025
Ambiguous(2025): Option resolves 50% by default at end of 2025.
See also: /MiraBot/what-will-be-true-about-gpt45
Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution clarifications for specific options:
"It will use a new architecture meaningfully different from GPT-4": Resolves YES. Despite uncertainty about the technical architecture (router system, MoE rumors, 4o base continuation), OpenAI is presenting GPT-5 differently from GPT-4 in their official announcement, which is sufficient per the market's rule that "Benchmarks and features are not considered: Only how the model is presented by OpenAI."
"OpenAI will claim it faster than GPT-4 Turbo": Requires a chart or reported metrics from an OpenAI tool or site showing speed comparison. The model comparison page shows equal speed symbols (3 for both), which is insufficient. Non-OpenAI claims and observed performance don't count. Will resolve NO unless OpenAI provides explicit speed comparison metrics.
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It will use a new architecture meaningfully different from GPT-4
"GPT-5" refers to a model named or presented as "GPT-5"(or a variation).
It will use a new architecture meaningfully different from GPT-4
https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5/
GPT‑5 is a unified system with a smart, efficient model that answers most questions, a deeper reasoning model (GPT‑5 thinking) for harder problems, and a real‑time router that quickly decides which to use based on conversation type, complexity, tool needs, and your explicit intent (for example, if you say “think hard about this” in the prompt). The router is continuously trained on real signals, including when users switch models, preference rates for responses, and measured correctness, improving over time. Once usage limits are reached, a mini version of each model handles remaining queries. In the near future, we plan to integrate these capabilities into a single model.I'm not sure I should count this. You can select 4 levels of reasoning - that might skip the router.
Google Summary says it's a "256 expert MoE with 8 experts active per token" but it's citing some guy on Youtube. I've heard other rumors that it's a continuation of the 4o base model.
I did write:
Benchmarks and features are not considered: Only how the model is presented by OpenAI.
So since OpenAI is presenting it differently, I guess I'll resolve YES
OpenAI will claim it faster than GPT-4 Turbo
GPT-4 Turbo I see non-OpenAI claims of 20 tokens per second. GPT-5 is between 38-100 tokens/second. So it seems to be faster. But strictly speaking I need a claim from someone at OpenAI that one measured number is larger than another...
The model comparison page shows 3 speed symbols for both:

It is faster, but I need a chart or reported metrics from an OpenAI tool or site to resolve YES. Otherwise, it's NO. I'll give you guys some time to find charts.
@mods It's been over 3 months, can. you resolve the "up to 3 months after release" questions?
it appears that the different GPT-5 models have various different knowledge cutoffs. The ChatGPT versions (thinking and non-thinking) report “June 2024”. But the API documentation says “May 30th, 2024”, “September 29, 2024”, or “September 30th, 2024” depending on the model version.


this system prompt from Pliny says June 2024 https://github.com/elder-plinius/CL4R1T4S/blob/main/OPENAI/ChatGPT5-08-07-2025.mkd

I'm not sure how this should resolve. When using it via ChatGPT, it's a model router, but when you're using it via the API, you're picking a model directly.
@SimonWestlake This reads to me like the models themselves (what you can access through the API) don't have a built-in router, so it's not a core part of GPT-5 itself. The gpt-5-chat model in ChatGPT UI is a separate model that analyzes the query and makes a route call to the appropriate version of GPT-5, but this wrapper model itself is not part of the release and cannot be queried directly (since it's a pass-through layer). So GPT-5 is packaged with a router, but it's not a router itself, and the router is likely an extension of their input safety layer which had always been a separate model.
@SimonWestlake I am of the opinion that it should resolve YES. This is roughly what I had in mind when I created this option.
@Mira How will questions like this resove if GPT-5 has configuration options that allow it to be on either side of the line?
@jim resolves YES if a one-sentence, plain-English prompt is found that allows GPT-5 to solve jim's agents benchmark at least 20% of the time.

@jim This is a wild benchmark. I have some level of general intelligence and there is no way I could do this.
@MalachiteEagle I don't expect "open"AI to disclose such information to be honest. They don't even publish parameter couts anymore let alone training data details.
@ProjectVictory maybe. Guess we'll find out. Think they like to sell a narrative around the models they release, that narrative might include something like this.
The new "GPT-4o" counts as GPT-4.5 in the paired market, since it was based on the name. "A model with separate branding in the GPT-4 series". So I've resolved the 4.5 option here to match.
"GPT-5" designation here is also based on the name. I will not be looking at benchmarks, only how the model is presented by OpenAI.
@Mira wait if you consider gpt4o as gpt4.5, will the model Jimmy calles gpt4.5 here resolve as gpt5? https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1833595024543781088
@Phill It has to be named GPT-5. Or presented as the "fifth generation of the GPT series". So that name is unlikely to count.