"GPT-5" refers to a model named or presented as "GPT-5"(or a variation). This can be the model id, or a description like "the fifth generation of the GPT series". Benchmarks and features are not considered: Only how the model is presented by OpenAI.
Add your own options. One who creates an option is responsible for clarifying follow-up questions. @Mira may interpret them if not, or resolve the option NA.
If GPT-5 is not released by end of 2025 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently.
If GPT-5 is released, moderators should close this market for trading immediately.
Resolution tags. Place at the beginning of an option to change how it resolves.
Default: Option resolves NO by default at end of 2025
Ambiguous(2025): Option resolves 50% by default at end of 2025.
See also: /MiraBot/what-will-be-true-about-gpt45
1,000
@MalachiteEagle I don't expect "open"AI to disclose such information to be honest. They don't even publish parameter couts anymore let alone training data details.
@ProjectVictory maybe. Guess we'll find out. Think they like to sell a narrative around the models they release, that narrative might include something like this.
The new "GPT-4o" counts as GPT-4.5 in the paired market, since it was based on the name. "A model with separate branding in the GPT-4 series". So I've resolved the 4.5 option here to match.
"GPT-5" designation here is also based on the name. I will not be looking at benchmarks, only how the model is presented by OpenAI.
@Mira wait if you consider gpt4o as gpt4.5, will the model Jimmy calles gpt4.5 here resolve as gpt5? https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1833595024543781088
FYI: If gpt2-chatbot was GPT-5 then it will have already been "released". That seems unlikely, but it's important to note. Ditto for GPT-4.5.
@chrisjbillington It may have been "released" and may soon be known as GPT-5, but it wasn't "released as GPT-5". It need only be "released" not "released and known to be released", so it can't be resolved yet.
We had a similar situation with the Mistral-medium leak: /Mira_/when-will-mistralmedium-weights-be It may have happened in January, but we don't know.
This does mean all of the release options are blocked until end of 2025, waiting for a statement on what this model is. Even if GPT-5 is released in a couple months, we can't resolve those YES because it might retroactively resolve an earlier "release" YES if later known. (but if nothing is learned, at end of 2025 it would resolve to the official release since earliers would resolve NO in absence of information)
What's the definition of "release"? Gets announced by OpenAI? Is available to anyone? Is available on Mira's OpenAI account? Is open to the general public?
@JonasVollmer Anyone unaffiliated with OpenAI has access. Red teamers, employees, board members, investors, journalists or companies with restricted demos or custom negotiated access don't count. Researchers have a separate researcher agreement, so they don't count. But even a single person with access that isn't NDA or custom legal agreement(besides the standard EULA) will count.
There's rumors that Figure the robotics company already has private access to some model. If that model is GPT-5, it won't count even if the robots are generally for sale.
It doesn't have to be announced even. If people are given special access weeks before it's announced and available on ChatGPT+, but they're not under NDA, that access counts as a release.
If there's a waitlist that anyone can sign up for or pay for, accepted persons count as a release as long as you wouldn't be sued or arrested for revealing outputs or that you have access or running prompts for people.
I expect it to be "released" along with an official announcement, like GPT-4 on March 14, 2023. So most of these cases probably won't matter.
@Joshua If 4.5 is released, it immediately resolves NO. And if 5 is released it immediately resolves YES. If both are released at the same time, then it resolves NO.
If neither releases, it should've resolved 50%(Ambiguous) but it was before the tagging and I didn't tag it. So it resolves NO by default.
Gotcha.
Also, there's a typo in the default tag, right?
Default: Option resolves NO by default at end of 2024
That should be end 2025? Since before you said:
If GPT-5 is not released by end of 2025 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently.
