40
841
1.8k
2026
44%
chance

Resolves PROB based on the percentage between 2024-01-01 and 2025-12-31 that the model is released. Resolves YES if the model is not released by end of 2025, or NO if released earlier than 2024-01-01.

It is recommended to use limit orders to trade on this market, to target specific percentages. There are 730 days in this interval, so each 10% is two and a half months.

Examples:

  • January 1, 2024 or earlier resolves 0%

  • April 1, 2024 resolves 12.5%

  • July 1, 2024 resolves 25%

  • September 30, 2024 resolves 37.5

  • December 31, 2024 resolves 50%

  • April 1, 2025 resolves 62.5%

  • July 1, 2025 resolves 75%

  • September 30, 2025 resolves 87.5%

  • December 31, 2025 or later resolves 100%

Intended calculation is to ask Wolfram Alpha a query like "number of days between 2024-01-01 and 2025-04-30", divide that by 730, and use the closest approximation to that I am able to input on the site. Rounds away from 50%.

  • "GPT-5" must be clearly and externally named as such, and must be accessible to anyone not affiliates of OpenAI or Microsoft. Resolution is based on the earliest date the market creator, a journalist, or a non-employee producing video evidence, uses GPT-5. A temporary demo does not count - it must be part of an official release by OpenAI to the general public, and then even if there's a waitlist the first such confirmed access counts.

  • An "affiliate of X" is an employee, owner, investor, contractor, or vendor signing an NDA of X. Customers bound by a Terms of Service are not considered affiliates. Security auditors, alignment researchers, PR consulting teams, data center operators, would all be affiliates.

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