Will the Palestinian population of the Gaza Strip drop below 2,000,000 before 2025?
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Currently at 2.3 million, according to Wikipedia.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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It is incredibly unlikely.
The birth rate is very high. Usually population rises by 2% each year. Current death count would mean it would barely offset the expected increase.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_State_of_Palestine
I think this market is about fairly priced. Of course Israel is not trying to ethnically cleanse Gaza, but from a 2.3M prewar population, the NYT estimates 100K people have fled and deaths are probably going to be around 50K. It's unlikely but not super unreasonable if 150K more people flee in the next few months because it gets much easier to flee, or if the number of people who fled is undercounted. I think 15% is about right.
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