Will China restrict exports of dysprosium or terbium on December 31, 2026?

Question

Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China requires export licenses for dysprosium or terbium exports to non-Chinese buyers (full controls in effect, not covered by tactical pause). Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 86% chance (3 traders, as of Oct 4, 2026).

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