Will the KIA-China rare earth trade have suffered a 30+ day halt by June 30, 2027?

Question

This market resolves YES if, by June 30, 2027, all Kachin State border crossings have been closed to rare earth trade for 30+ consecutive days due to a breakdown in the KIA-China commercial relationship.

YES if by June 30, 2027:

All Kachin border crossings closed to RE trade for 30+ consecutive days

Closure caused by KIA-China diplomatic/commercial breakdown (not weather/logistics)

NO if:

No 30+ day consecutive halt has occurred by June 30, 2027

Any closures were shorter than 30 days or caused by non-commercial factors

Resolution sources (priority order):

Myanmar Now border crossing reporting (myanmar-now.org)

The Irrawaddy China-Myanmar watch (irrawaddy.com)

Chinese customs/trade media

BNI Online (bnionline.net)

KIA/KIO official statements

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 18% chance (0 traders, as of Mar 31, 2026).

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