Resolution criteria
Resolve YES if, for September 2025 U.S. light‑duty vehicle sales reported by Argonne, the quantity M = ICE + 1.075×HEV + 1.12×PHEV strictly exceeds 1,292,000; otherwise NO. (anl.gov)
Use Argonne’s September 2025 monthly “Light‑Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates” data:
HEV = hybrid‑electric vehicle sales (non‑plug‑in).
PHEV = plug‑in hybrid‑electric vehicle sales.
ICE = total light‑duty vehicle (LDV) sales − (HEV + PHEV + BEV + FCEV). (anl.gov)
Source for all inputs: Argonne monthly update page (and its linked dataset, if provided) for September 2025. The market resolves upon Argonne’s first official September 2025 publication; later revisions will not change resolution. (anl.gov)
Calculation: use Argonne’s integer unit counts; compute M with the given multipliers and compare to 1,292,000 without rounding.
Background
Argonne’s monthly update reports U.S. HEV, PHEV, BEV, and FCEV sales and cites Wards Auto for monthly E‑drive sales. It also provides PEV share of total LDV sales, implying a consistent total LDV denominator. (anl.gov)
Definitions: PEVs include BEVs and PHEVs; ICE here denotes conventional gasoline/diesel LDVs without electric drive. (anl.gov)
Example scale: in June 2025 Argonne reported 153,660 HEVs and 19,716 PHEVs; PEVs captured 9.04% of LDV sales that month. (anl.gov)
Considerations
Argonne occasionally revises monthly figures; this market uses the first September 2025 release to avoid re‑resolution. (anl.gov)
If Argonne omits an explicit FCEV figure for the month, treat FCEV as 0 for the ICE calculation. (anl.gov)
Traders can cross‑reference totals when published (e.g., PEV share × total LDV) against Argonne’s reported counts for a consistency check. (anl.gov)
If it helps...
The manifoldbot Python package makes it easy to participate in markets like this one.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ677 | |
| 2 | Ṁ137 | |
| 3 | Ṁ43 | |
| 4 | Ṁ15 | |
| 5 | Ṁ7 |
People are also trading
@MikhailTal any specific reason you have not resolved these markets? The users have been pinging you for clarification and resolution.
It looks like you have more than 1 dozen markets that are closed and awaiting resolution. I didn't go to look in detail but it is expected that you will promptly resolve any of them where the data is available. If it's not yet available you can just write a comment with an expected date.
@Mochi they just bet today!! That's frustrating. I don't want to be on the hook to resolve dozens of these. Hmm.
@Eliza @shankypanky can you check on this situation, the creator is betting regularly but not interacting here to resolve.
@Eliza I noticed the creator often uses api to bet 5M on a lot of his markets that are mostly going to resolve the other direction. I think these are not active decisions by the creator. But please check to confirm. Thanks
@Eliza Thanks, also to share more information. The creator has a very popular market with high liquidity traded by many top traders shown in first market linked here. and some other active markets that I am participating in, but I am worried that my mana will continue being tied down if all those markets will remain unresolved long after they reach resolution criteria. The second market linked here is another example, it should already be resolved to no but I am not sure if I should put more mana into it as my mana would just be tied down and I can’t trade other markets.
@Eliza another example of a market that was unresolved for a long time 1 month or so back and a lot of mana was tied down in the market
@Eliza etc al - I've emailed the creator and asked them to come resolve this and other markets awaiting resolution. I'll give them a couple of days to see it and hopefully come close the loop.
@shankypanky How much time do we need to give the creator before we can resolve this? I am asking this because this market is past resolution criteria for 22 days already, this is probably okay for some users with large mana balance, but for a lot of users this is quite significant. Also genuinely asking, what is the best practice for this creators other markets in the future when they are long past resolution criteria? This will discourage traders to trade on this creator’s market and make the probabilities less accurate as traders are afraid to get their mana tied down.
@Mochi Luckily in cases like this, your existing positions are earning those daily loans, so for example in this market you have already gotten back over 20% of your investment via loans after just a few weeks. That at least softens the blow a little bit.
@Mochi this is the first time I've reached out to the creator outside of the site and as mentioned in the comments, it seems they are solely practicipating on the site via API. so I'll give a couple of days for them to see the email and come back to the site (which hopefully they do as there are a number of unresolved markets and that's part of the expectation of a market creator) and then we'll go from there.
@MikhailTal M=1.115 million < 1.292 million upon Argonne’s first official September 2025 publication. Resolves No
