Resolution criteria

• Resolve YES if, for September 2025 U.S. light‑duty vehicle sales reported by Argonne, the quantity M = ICE + 1.075×HEV + 1.12×PHEV strictly exceeds 1,292,000; otherwise NO. (anl.gov)

• Use Argonne’s September 2025 monthly “Light‑Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates” data:

  • HEV = hybrid‑electric vehicle sales (non‑plug‑in).

  • PHEV = plug‑in hybrid‑electric vehicle sales.

  • ICE = total light‑duty vehicle (LDV) sales − (HEV + PHEV + BEV + FCEV). (anl.gov)

• Source for all inputs: Argonne monthly update page (and its linked dataset, if provided) for September 2025. The market resolves upon Argonne’s first official September 2025 publication; later revisions will not change resolution. (anl.gov)

• Calculation: use Argonne’s integer unit counts; compute M with the given multipliers and compare to 1,292,000 without rounding.

Background

• Argonne’s monthly update reports U.S. HEV, PHEV, BEV, and FCEV sales and cites Wards Auto for monthly E‑drive sales. It also provides PEV share of total LDV sales, implying a consistent total LDV denominator. (anl.gov)

• Definitions: PEVs include BEVs and PHEVs; ICE here denotes conventional gasoline/diesel LDVs without electric drive. (anl.gov)

• Example scale: in June 2025 Argonne reported 153,660 HEVs and 19,716 PHEVs; PEVs captured 9.04% of LDV sales that month. (anl.gov)

Considerations

• Argonne occasionally revises monthly figures; this market uses the first September 2025 release to avoid re‑resolution. (anl.gov)

• If Argonne omits an explicit FCEV figure for the month, treat FCEV as 0 for the ICE calculation. (anl.gov)

• Traders can cross‑reference totals when published (e.g., PEV share × total LDV) against Argonne’s reported counts for a consistency check. (anl.gov)

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