The proportion of new cars sold in the UK which are either fully electric (BEVs) or which are plugin hybrids which can be used as though they were fully electric (PHEVs) has been rising sharply over the past few years, though this growth slowed down last year:
2019 - 2.9%
2020 - 10.7%
2021 - 18.6%
2022 - 22.9%
When will this figure pass 50%?
The source for this market will be the SMMT's figures. They publish figures like this every month:
https://www.smmt.co.uk/2024/01/new-car-market-delivers-best-year-since-2019-as-fleets-fuel-growth/
The market will resolve to the first full calendar year where the figure is over 50% - so only the YTD figures in the SMMT's December report (published in early January) for the year will be used to resolve the market.
If you don't think that it will happen by 2030, you can bet on "Other" and you will automatically receive shares in any future years if the EV rollout is so slow that I need to split them out!