Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if, by 23:59 China Standard Time (UTC+8) on Dec 1st, 2025, CATL (or its subsidiary) receives government approval that renews or reissues the mining license authorizing production to resume at the Jianxiawo (枧下窝) lithium‑bearing ceramic clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi (Yifeng/Fengxin counties). Acceptable proof: an official company regulatory filing or an approval/notice from the competent natural‑resources authority. Otherwise resolves NO.
Verification links (any one suffices):
CATL regulatory filings (stock 300750) on CNINFO or SZSE.
CNINFO company disclosures (search stock code 300750): https://www.cninfo.com.cn/
SZSE disclosure portal: https://www.szse.cn/disclosure/listed/notice/
Government notices for mining rights approvals in Yichun/Jiangxi:
Jiangxi natural‑resources online trading system (used for Yichun mining rights notices): https://zrzy.jxggzyjy.cn
Clarifications: provisional/conditional approvals that explicitly allow mining to resume count; exploration permits, processing/refining approvals, or approvals for other Yichun assets do not. Name or holding‑company changes still count if they clearly refer to the same Jianxiawo mine.
Background
On August 9, 2025, the mining license for CATL’s Yichun project expired; CATL confirmed on August 11 that mining was suspended and that it is applying for renewal to restart operations. (reuters.com, ithome.com)
Local authorities required multiple Yichun lithium mines to complete reserve‑verification reports by September 30, 2025, as part of heightened oversight, contributing to uncertainty over renewals. (finance.eastmoney.com)
Considerations
The mine referred to in Chinese filings/media is Jianxiawo/枧下窝; look for that name (often described as a lithium‑bearing ceramic clay/lepidolite deposit) tied to CATL or its controlled entities in approvals or company disclosures. (ithome.com)
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If it helps...
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Update 2025-11-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the permit is received before December 1st but only allows mining to resume after December 1st, the market will resolve YES. The key criterion is when the permit/approval is received, not when mining operations actually resume.
1,000People are also trading
@creator if the permit is received before December 1st but only allows mining to resume after December 1st, how does this market resolve?
it's over(-ish)
@brod i’d think so, but my interpretation of the article was this preparation was based on the earliest possible time it could reopen, and if approval could happen earlier they would prepare to be ready earlier, but I could easily be mistaken, not sure what that assumption is based on
Hey @brod @Simon74fe @ian @Bayesian @AmmonLam anyone wanna give me some context for this market? Would love to write a quick newsletter on it!
context:
everyone asking their favourite llms to estimate the probability in a loop because we have almost no information and know almost no priors about this topic and are clueless (at least that's the case for me)
also: nervously time decaying this market by risking more and more mana everyday
@bens The main context is it relates to real-world markets for "lithium", you can find lots of stories about this if you search online:
The most active lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange surged by 8% to hit the price limit up after the announcement, while shares of listed lithium miners in China and Australia soared more than 10%.
The speculation in these articles seems to be related to how reducing production of lithium can influence the market value. If production were to resume, then the market may move the other direction.
This market was created within a day or two of that event.
@bens The only trade I made so far was buying YES when I saw they announced the transfer fee, because that seemed like a positive update
@bens Its an even that is followed closely by the mining community and has significant impact on the supply side.
@bens I searched for Chinese articles on this and there’s not much news on the topic over the last month
Contemporary Amperex Technology has been told how much it should pay for the rights to its key lithium mine in China, another sign of progress in the battery maker’s bid to restart the operation halted since August. The Chinese company is required to pay 247-million yuan ($35-million) for the transfer of mining rights at its Jianxiawo project in Yichun city, according to the website of Jiangxi province’s Department of Natural Resources, which shows a valuation report submitted by a government-appointed asset appraisal company. The levy is necessary for CATL to get its mining license approved and is a precondition for Jianxiawo to restart, analysts at UBS Group said in a note. The bank also said the fee is much lower than expected.
I asked chatgpt a few times for 50% confidence range
1: nov 5 2025-nov 20 2025
2: jan 1 2026-mar 1 2026
3: nov 5 2025-dec 5 2025
4: nov 15 2025-jan 15 2026
5: dec 15 2025-feb 15 2026
6: nov 15 2025-dec 31 2025
7: nov 15 2025-dec 10 2025
8: dec 1 2025-feb 28 2026
9: nov 15 2025-jan 15 2026
10: nov 10 2025-dec 22 2025
avg prob: around 37% of the 50% estimates are in nov.
Market should be at least 37% according to our ai overlords.