Tesla reports 465,800 vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025?

Question

Tesla to report more than 465,800 vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025?

Resolution criteria

Resolve YES if Tesla’s official “Third Quarter 2025 Production, Deliveries & Deployments” communication reports total vehicle deliveries strictly greater than 465,800. Resolve NO otherwise.

Resolution criteria

Resolve YES if Tesla’s official “Third Quarter 2025 Production, Deliveries & Deployments” press release reports total vehicle deliveries strictly greater than 465,800; resolve NO otherwise. Use the “Total deliveries” figure (sum across all models) shown in the release’s table. If exactly 465,800, resolve NO. If Tesla issues a correction within 7 calendar days of the initial Q3 release, use the corrected figure; otherwise use the initial figure. Primary source: Tesla Investor Relations press releases (see prior quarters for format: Q2 2025 and Q3 2024). (ir.tesla.com)

If no press release is posted by October 10, 2025, resolve using the first official Tesla shareholder materials or SEC filing that state total Q3 2025 deliveries (e.g., shareholder update deck, 10‑Q/8‑K) published on Tesla IR. (ir.tesla.com)

Background

Tesla reported 462,800 deliveries in Q3 2024. (ir.tesla.com)

Q4 2024 set the all‑time quarterly record at 495,570 deliveries. (ir.tesla.com)

2025 to date: 336,681 deliveries in Q1 and 384,122 in Q2. (ir.tesla.com)

The 465,800 threshold would be above last year’s Q3 but below the Q4 2024 record. (ir.tesla.com)

Considerations

Tesla typically posts production/delivery releases within the first few days after quarter‑end (e.g., Oct 2, 2024; Jul 2, 2025; Jan 2, 2025), and the table in those releases provides the exact “Total deliveries” used for resolution. (ir.tesla.com)

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Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Oct 12, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.