Tesla to report more than 465,800 vehicle deliveries in Q3 2025?

Resolution criteria

• Resolve YES if Tesla’s official “Third Quarter 2025 Production, Deliveries & Deployments” communication reports total vehicle deliveries strictly greater than 465,800. Resolve NO otherwise.

  Resolution criteria

  • Resolve YES if Tesla’s official “Third Quarter 2025 Production, Deliveries & Deployments” press release reports total vehicle deliveries strictly greater than 465,800; resolve NO otherwise. Use the “Total deliveries” figure (sum across all models) shown in the release’s table. If exactly 465,800, resolve NO. If Tesla issues a correction within 7 calendar days of the initial Q3 release, use the corrected figure; otherwise use the initial figure. Primary source: Tesla Investor Relations press releases (see prior quarters for format: Q2 2025 and Q3 2024). (ir.tesla.com)

  • If no press release is posted by October 10, 2025, resolve using the first official Tesla shareholder materials or SEC filing that state total Q3 2025 deliveries (e.g., shareholder update deck, 10‑Q/8‑K) published on Tesla IR. (ir.tesla.com)

  Background

  • Tesla reported 462,800 deliveries in Q3 2024. (ir.tesla.com)

  • Q4 2024 set the all‑time quarterly record at 495,570 deliveries. (ir.tesla.com)

  • 2025 to date: 336,681 deliveries in Q1 and 384,122 in Q2. (ir.tesla.com)

  • The 465,800 threshold would be above last year’s Q3 but below the Q4 2024 record. (ir.tesla.com)

  Considerations

  • Tesla typically posts production/delivery releases within the first few days after quarter‑end (e.g., Oct 2, 2024; Jul 2, 2025; Jan 2, 2025), and the table in those releases provides the exact “Total deliveries” used for resolution. (ir.tesla.com)

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