Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if, by 23:59 China Standard Time (UTC+8) on Apr 1st, 2026, CATL (or its subsidiary) receives government approval that renews or reissues the mining license authorizing production to resume at the Jianxiawo (枧下窝) lithium‑bearing ceramic clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi (Yifeng/Fengxin counties). Acceptable proof: an official company regulatory filing or an approval/notice from the competent natural‑resources authority. Otherwise resolves NO.
Verification links (any one suffices):
CATL regulatory filings (stock 300750) on CNINFO or SZSE.
CNINFO company disclosures (search stock code 300750): https://www.cninfo.com.cn/
SZSE disclosure portal: https://www.szse.cn/disclosure/listed/notice/
Government notices for mining rights approvals in Yichun/Jiangxi:
Jiangxi natural‑resources online trading system (used for Yichun mining rights notices): https://zrzy.jxggzyjy.cn
Clarifications: provisional/conditional approvals that explicitly allow mining to resume count; exploration permits, processing/refining approvals, or approvals for other Yichun assets do not. Name or holding‑company changes still count if they clearly refer to the same Jianxiawo mine.
Background
On August 9, 2025, the mining license for CATL’s Yichun project expired; CATL confirmed on August 11 that mining was suspended and that it is applying for renewal to restart operations. (reuters.com, ithome.com)
Local authorities required multiple Yichun lithium mines to complete reserve‑verification reports by September 30, 2025, as part of heightened oversight, contributing to uncertainty over renewals. (finance.eastmoney.com)
Considerations
The mine referred to in Chinese filings/media is Jianxiawo/枧下窝; look for that name (often described as a lithium‑bearing ceramic clay/lepidolite deposit) tied to CATL or its controlled entities in approvals or company disclosures. (ithome.com)
Related markets
Dec 2025 https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-CuREsOyEhZ
Jan 2026 https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-qz65RqIZsy
Feb 2026 https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-CuREsOyEhZ
Mar 2026 https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-sdqASghZEh
Apr 2026 https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-NnIUsAUC8g
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@100Anonymous I did look for any evidence a few days ago and couldn't find anything. I'll resolve this one No but if @MikhailTal shows up saying it was a Yes or someone else brings the proof, we would be obliged to put it correct.
@MikhailTal there is no announcement about licenses at all on any of these websites (The last one is not even loading). Thus I think this matter should resolve now.
Market pricing looks anchored to earlier delays, but the combination of approved reserve report, disclosed EIA progress, and local-media guidance of a February restart makes a pre‑April 1 license renewal more likely than not. The key tail risk is timeline slippage rather than outright denial.