Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, by 23:59 China Standard Time (UTC+8) on December 31, 2026, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL)—or its controlled subsidiaries, such as Yichun Era New Energy Resources Co., Ltd.—receives official government approval that renews or reissues the mining license authorizing the resumption of mining operations at the Jianxiawo (枧下窝) lithium-bearing ceramic clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi Province.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

Acceptable Proof of Resolution:

• An official regulatory filing or corporate announcement from CATL (SZSE: 300750) published on CNINFO or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE).

• An official approval notice or public directory listing from the Ministry of Natural Resources, Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources, or the Yichun Municipal Bureau of Natural Resources (e.g., Jiangxi Public Resources Trading Network).

• Unambiguous reporting from major international or domestic financial news agencies (such as Bloomberg, Reuters, or Caixin) confirming that the formal mining license has been officially granted or renewed.

Clarifications:

• Provisional Approvals: Temporary or conditional approvals that explicitly authorize the resumption of active mining operations at the Jianxiawo site will count as a renewal.

• Excluded Permits: Exploration licenses, environmental impact approvals, industrial refining/processing permits, or approvals for other unrelated mining assets in the Yichun region do not qualify.

• Corporate Structure Changes: If the operating license is granted to a newly named subsidiary or holding company, it still counts as long as the entity remains under the control of CATL and explicitly applies to the Jianxiawo mine.

Background

The Jianxiawo mine in Jiangxi province is one of the world's largest lithium assets, representing an estimated 3% to 6% of global lithium supply. Mining operations at the site were halted on August 9, 2025, after CATL's three-year mining license expired and local environmental and compliance reviews delayed its extension.

The suspension triggered significant fluctuations in global lithium pricing. While CATL and market analysts initially anticipated a renewal within several months, the approval process has been prolonged due to heightened regulatory scrutiny, environmental evaluations, and government-led effort to manage industrial overcapacity in the region. As of mid-2026, CATL is still awaiting final license clearance from the Bureau of Natural Resources of Yichun.

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