Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if, by 23:59 China Standard Time (UTC+8) on Feb 1st, 2026, CATL (or its subsidiary) receives government approval that renews or reissues the mining license authorizing production to resume at the Jianxiawo (枧下窝) lithium‑bearing ceramic clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi (Yifeng/Fengxin counties). Acceptable proof: an official company regulatory filing or an approval/notice from the competent natural‑resources authority. Otherwise resolves NO.
Verification links (any one suffices):
CATL regulatory filings (stock 300750) on CNINFO or SZSE.
CNINFO company disclosures (search stock code 300750): https://www.cninfo.com.cn/
SZSE disclosure portal: https://www.szse.cn/disclosure/listed/notice/
Government notices for mining rights approvals in Yichun/Jiangxi:
Jiangxi natural‑resources online trading system (used for Yichun mining rights notices): https://zrzy.jxggzyjy.cn
Clarifications: provisional/conditional approvals that explicitly allow mining to resume count; exploration permits, processing/refining approvals, or approvals for other Yichun assets do not. Name or holding‑company changes still count if they clearly refer to the same Jianxiawo mine.
Background
On August 9, 2025, the mining license for CATL’s Yichun project expired; CATL confirmed on August 11 that mining was suspended and that it is applying for renewal to restart operations. (reuters.com, ithome.com)
Local authorities required multiple Yichun lithium mines to complete reserve‑verification reports by September 30, 2025, as part of heightened oversight, contributing to uncertainty over renewals. (finance.eastmoney.com)
Considerations
The mine referred to in Chinese filings/media is Jianxiawo/枧下窝; look for that name (often described as a lithium‑bearing ceramic clay/lepidolite deposit) tied to CATL or its controlled entities in approvals or company disclosures. (ithome.com)
Related markets
Dec 2025 https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-CuREsOyEhZ
Jan 2026 https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-qz65RqIZsy
Feb 2026 https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-CuREsOyEhZ
Mar 2026 https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-sdqASghZEh
Apr 2026 https://manifold.markets/MikhailTal/catl-receives-license-renewal-for-y-NnIUsAUC8g
1,000@Mochi My own read of the newest round of rumors is they sounded the same as the last round of rumors -- complete fabrications intended to direct public opinion in some fashion. Why should we believe this any more than the rumors that they would resume production in early December?
There was an environmental assessment recently but I don't think that is any real evidence that the license will be approved yet.
@Eliza From what I gathered, it seems they are just pending final approval for the license which is expected in January. It could be a total fabrication but also some evidence of real progress being made