Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, by 23:59 China Standard Time (UTC+8) on February 28, 2027, CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) or its controlled subsidiaries receive official government approval that renews or reissues the mining license authorizing production to resume at the Jianxiawo (枧下窝) lithium-bearing ceramic clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi Province.
Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Acceptable Proof & Verification Sources:
Official corporate regulatory filings or announcements from CATL (SZSE: 300750) on CNINFO or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE).
Official government notices from the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources or the Bureau of Natural Resources of Yichun, such as postings on the Jiangxi Public Resources Trading System.
Reports from reputable financial news publications (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Caixin, Jiemian News) confirming the official renewal of the permit.
Clarifications:
Provisional or conditional approvals that explicitly allow CATL to resume mining activities at the Jianxiawo mine count as a YES.
Exploration-only permits, mineral processing/refining approvals, or approvals for other unrelated Yichun assets do not satisfy the criteria.
Changes to the holding company name or minor adjustments to the asset's naming convention will still resolve YES as long as they explicitly apply to the same physical Jianxiawo mine.
Background
In August 2025, CATL suspended operations at its flagship Jianxiawo lepidolite clay mine in Yichun, Jiangxi, after its mining license expired on August 9, 2025. The mine represents a critical domestic supply of lithium, previously estimated to account for roughly 6% of global lithium supply and 8% of China's total output.
Initially expected to resume operations within a few months, the renewal process has faced significant delays due to heightened regulatory audit requirements from the local Bureau of Natural Resources, compliance reviews under China's revised Mineral Resources Law, and environmental standards. As of June 2026, CATL is still waiting for local regulators to grant the license renewal.
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1,000People are also trading
@mods just realized creator hasn't resolved yes since news broke 6d ago, please resolve yes or clarify that i am totally wrong
@XCorporation @MikhailTal paid $1000 to ask this question I think we can wait to see if they are happy about it or not.
@Eliza who paid $1000 to ask this question, and from what I see(maybe you don't, I honestly might be wrong), but it seems clear that they have indeed received a license renewal
@XCorporation the user who posted the question did - they bought the mana to do so.
I agree with you on the interpretation of the news but I think Eliza is right to wait in this case; there's been a lot of basically misinformation about this mine over the last year, so it seems right for the OP to make the final judgement call.
(Even though substantially all my mana is locked here)
Actually, maybe this is resolvable right now:
Reuters says they have a "safety production permit"; so the only remaining uncertainty is if the safety production permit is sufficient or if they need some other licensing too.
https://www.cls.cn/detail/2413330
[machine translation of a segment]:
What is the general procedure for resuming production at a mine? Cao Xusheng, director of the Mineral Resources Legal Affairs Department of Beijing Jingshi Law Firm, explained to a reporter from Cailian Press: After a mining company passes the joint inspection for resumption of work and production by multiple local departments, obtains the approval for resumption of work, and acquires a safety production license, all pre-mining administrative approval procedures for the mine are completed, and it is ready to legally mine.
An employee of another mining company in Yichun told reporters from Cailian Press that the process for renewing a production license and resuming production involves first going to a meeting (a special review meeting organized by the competent authority), and then being issued a safety production license after approval, after which production can resume.
These sources at least claim that the 'safety production [permit/license]' is the last thing for "production to resume".
cc @MikhailTal up to your judgment!
@No_uh https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-catl-secures-safety-permit-restart-production-flagship-lithium-mine-2026-07-07/
I'm not 100% that this resolves the question yes by itself, but I think there are good chances it resolves yes soon.
There were also reports that the mine has actually restarted already, but I think they might be fake/exaggerated, e.g. they've just opened up for some minor construction activity or something.