@traders I made a similar question:

/BillClintonBubba/will-spacex-valuation-drop-by-50-or-Zq85udRyRl

@BillClintonBubba Thank you! I think it's great when people respond to bad questions by making their own version. This one seems weird in its own way, but still, I like it!

@EvanDaniel I tried to make something in the spirt of this, but also not a boring question. The chances of SpaceX falling to a $175 Billion valuation in 2026 is near zero. The Chances of it falling to $80 (-50% from June 14th) also kind of boring and single digits.

I am confused about what the threshold for YES is. If the threshold is 175 billion, which is what I gathered from the resolution text when I bet no, my credence is like 1-2%. If it's 1 trillion, closer to 20%-30%. This should be clarified.

@MichalPasiak you know mods will un-resolve the market if you resolve it incorrectly, right?

@MichalPasiak This market doesn't make sense to me.
The question says "current level", and the market was created on June 14th (post-ipo). But the description references a value from early 2026.

Further, the description refers to "SpaceX's valuation (based on a secondary market transaction, funding round, or IPO pricing)", but it's already IPOed, so we have a market price for it.

@DanielTilkin These are good questions. @MichalPasiak would you mind answering as you’re betting YES?

@MachiNi pinging @mods, as the creator already has another market that was resolved very questionably, /MichalPasiak/is-it-possible-that-airplanes-flyin

@DanielTilkin great points. Let's make sure we stick to the IPO price then, as it's the most current. post the number if you got it.

@DanielTilkin if not make any sense to you scroll down

@MichalPasiak What is the "current value"? $135 per share?

@HillaryClinton ask grok

@MichalPasiak So if we use the $175 Billion figure, why are you betting Yes when it's worth $2 Trillion?

@HillaryClinton $175 Billion -50% is $2 Trillion ? rly?

@MichalPasiak What stock price does SpaceX need to hit for this to resolve yes?

@HillaryClinton you sounds like Hilaty and think like Hilary read the question again please

@MichalPasiak Okay so at the current 13.08 Billion shares oustanding, for SpaceX to reach $175 Billion, the share price would need to fall to $13.38. Is that correct?

@MichalPasiak why can’t you just answer the question? What baseline value are you using and why are you betting YES?

@MachiNi Will SpaceX valuation drop by -50% or more from its current level by end of 2026?

@MichalPasiak Please strive to be excellent to your fellow users. This includes clarifying and answering reasonable questions.

@MichalPasiak as of what date?

@EvanDaniel check the date wen it was posted please................

@MichalPasiak The date would suggest you mean something like the Friday close price. That conflicts with the description.

@EvanDaniel at any point before December 31, 2026./.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. my good are you ppl have iq of potato?

@MichalPasiak dude the question is about the initial reference price, not the end period.

The /MichalPasiak/will-north-korea-conduct-a-major-mi market was also misresolved, the description says "Will North Korea conduct a major military provocation (missile test or attack) against South Korea or Japan in 2026?" and so couldn't reasonably resolve to NO yet. Although funnily enough this resolution went against the market creator, so I don't really get it.

@PhilipDowdell troll account?