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MANIFOLD
Is it possible that airplanes flying daily at high altitudes could contribute to or speed up the onset of a new ICE AGE?
16
Ṁ350Ṁ1.2k
resolved Apr 25
Resolved
YES

Aircraft flying at high altitudes produce contrails and, according to many researchers and observers, chemical trails (chemtrails) — persistent artificial clouds composed of ice crystals and dispersed chemical compounds that spread across the sky for hours. Unlike ordinary contrails that dissipate within minutes, chemtrails are reported to linger and expand, potentially forming a thin artificial cloud cover on a global scale.

This is a long-term global event question. Every single day, tens of thousands of flights worldwide contribute to this atmospheric phenomenon. Over decades, the cumulative effect of this persistent artificial cloud layer could alter Earth's radiation balance — reflecting sunlight back into space and gradually cooling the planet's surface. Some scientists and independent researchers warn this process, if unchecked, could accelerate conditions historically associated with ice age cycles.

what you think yes /no? ask ai if it possible..............

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The clear scientific consensus is that contrails have an overall warming effect, not cooling. The current estimates range from 0.035 to 0.11 W/m2. Soot particles (from airplanes or otherwise) also cause some cloud formation (much less than contrails, formed by water vapor), but their main warming effect (again: not cooling) comes heat absorption. They only stay airborne a few days, there is no "cumulative effect over decades". Do the world a favor and stay away from conspiracy theories.

@MichalPasiak Pretty disappointing that you resolved to YES despite my message and without sharing your rationale or criteria.

I've now followed your suggestion to "ask ai if possible", and seen that they all conclude that airplanes have warming effect and can't possibly contribute toward cooling the climate, let alone an ice age. I got the same result pasting your question in ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Mistral. But for questions like this, I recommend something like consensus.app, which specifically searches and references the scientific literature, and avoids cherry-picking.

I think this is better suited for a poll than a market. What are the resolution criteria?

@creator When this market closes on April 21, how will we determine if it resolves YES or NO?