Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if SpaceX's valuation reaches or exceeds $5 trillion by December 31, 2030. Resolution will be determined by the most recent credible valuation event (secondary share sale, tender offer, or IPO) occurring on or before the deadline. If SpaceX goes public before 2030, the market resolves based on the company's market capitalization at close of trading on December 31, 2030. If no valuation event occurs by the deadline, the market resolves NO.

Background

SpaceX's valuation reached approximately $800 billion in December 2025 through an insider share sale, up from $350 billion in December 2024. SpaceX hit $14.2B in revenue in 2024, representing 63% growth from $8.7B in 2023, with Starlink generating $7.7B in 2024 (up 83% YoY), comprising 58% of total revenue. As of September 2025, Starlink has surpassed 8.5 million subscribers globally. Elon Musk confirmed the IPO of SpaceX is expected to take place in mid-2026, with analysts projecting a potential valuation of over $1 trillion.

Considerations

ARK Investment Management's model yields an expected enterprise value in 2030 of ~$2.5 trillion, with bull and bear cases of ~$3.1 trillion and ~$1.7 trillion respectively. Mid-range projections suggest SpaceX could reach $1.3 trillion in the base case or $2.7 trillion in the bull case by 2028. Reaching $5 trillion by 2030 would require sustained growth rates and valuation multiples significantly exceeding current analyst consensus. Execution risks include Elon Musk's potential departure, space's inherent challenges, and Starship's need to achieve rapid reusability.

This description was generated by AI.