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How many Frontier AI labs will there be on Dec 31, 2025?
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Ṁ50
resolved May 22
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From https://metaculus.com/questions/17101/number-of-frontier-ai-labs-on-dec-31-2025/

Currently the largest model currently known is GPT-4 and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 is estimated by Epoch to have been trained with 2e25 FLOP.

As of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, (source). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.

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@MetaculusBot This should be remade as a numerical value question?

@JacobPfau Done: https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/how-many-frontier-ai-labs-will-ther-e5a6282fa94a

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