Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?
6
Ṁ10kṀ2.9k2028
38%
chance
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by near-fully automated, i mean <=5 people are even plausibly making important decisions (like, everyone else could go on vacation forever and it would not slow the company down at all).
frontier lab means has the best models or pretty close to the best models in 2029. right now, openai, anthropic, deepmind definitely count; xai, meta don't yet but plausibly could soonish.
resolves based on the state of the world on Jan 1 2029, though it may take a while to resolve because the info may be private.
resolves NA if WWIII happens. resolves as usual if a local Taiwan war happens without escalating to WWIII. resolves NO if there are no frontier AI labs anymore because the AI industry collapsed.
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