Resolves YES if someone on Manifold earns Ṁ1,500,000 or more total profit before December 31st 2023 23:59:59 UTC. If this dosn't happen resolves NO.
This market will resolves using the official Manifold Leaderboard: Top Traders of All Time OR using the "Trading profits" value from the profile page of the user in question.
Caveats:
1. Several people have to confirm in the comments that the resolution criteria are met. A photoshoped screenshot wold not trigger the resolution.
2. Any single point on the personal "Trading profits" graph that is Ṁ1,500,000 or more is sufficient for the YES resolution. A "weird profit spike" still counts.
3. If Manifold admins discontinue the Leaderboard feature (it's no longer available through any link) this market resolves N/A regardless if the total profits value is still displayed on the profile page.
4. If Manifold admins rollback the windfall profits from the self-resolving markets (like the WvM) this market still resolves acording to the resolution criteria above.
5. Intentional total profit value manipulation by strategic betting by anyone will not be disqualified, and this market still resolves acording to the resolution criteria above.
6. Intentional total profit value manipulation using bugs / alt-accounts / bots / or fake accounts WILL be disqualified provided sufficient proof, and this market will close, untill the admins take necessary actions and/or rollback the exploited profits, and only after that the market will be reopened. If this market is ever resolved as YES by mistake and later admins ban the user or rollback the exploited profits this market will re-resolve as N/A.
7. In case of a dispute the poll will be held on how this market should resolve.
8. Any value on any profit graph before May 1st 2023 will not trigger the resolution.
This list of caveats might change based on the feedback in the comment section.
I myself will not bet on this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ41,611 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,146 | |
| 3 | Ṁ721 | |
| 4 | Ṁ603 | |
| 5 | Ṁ322 |
People are also trading
I'm a bit confused - does anyone have any proof that this was achieved?
ETA - proof lower in the comments
@Tagger a few people screenshotted it in comments here. You can also see it on my profile
Related question for those who would like to keep playing:
Target of 1,525,000 by end of day…
https://manifold.markets/AIC/short-fuse-will-anyone-earn-1525-mi?r=QUlD
@MayMeta can you resolve YES? There is no one in the comments disagreeing. Only Semiotic Rivalry has mentioned "potentially illicit transactions" but it seems clear from the other comments that they do not break the rules (and Semiotic Rivalry didn't even say that it did break the rules).
@cece This list of caveats might change based on the feedback in the comment section.
not complaining though, since i made money on this
@cece yes, I'm confused as to why this isn't resolvable. How could a new exception be added at this point?
I probably could have accomplished this without this but I did a strategic bet.
I offered @MichaelWheatley a +EV bet on a conditional market and then bid up my marked to market profits.
There was no bug, alt-account, bot or fake account used, merely strategic intentional profit value manipulation
Congrats @MarcusAbramovitch! Nicely done. Where did all this profit come from though? I am quite confused, your profile doesn't seem to be showing 1 day profits properly.
@Shump there were some potentially illicit transactions going on...
https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/if-the-cadusd-exchange-rate-exceeds
@MarcusAbramovitch I already am. I'm not going to make some huge bets if that's what you're thinking