Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2026?
Basic
35
6.2k
2026
50%
chance

It will be resolved yes if the official publication launch date is before 2026, and if it is also actually being sold in at least some bookstores before 2026.

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bought Ṁ150 YES

Between the recent blog posts and the leaks about publishing schedules for adjacent books, he will announce the book at world con and release the end of this year.

I’m releasing a very long and boring autobiographical account of how cold I was last January and titling it this.

bought Ṁ200 NO

Unlikely on priors. Book was allegedly a few months away from being done in 2016. So the book has been "almost done" for 6.5 years. By Laplace's law of succession (sort of), that implies a 23% chance that the book comes out in any given 1.5-year period.

If you count the full period since ADWD release (2011) as the reference class, that's 13 years, but I don't think that's the right reference class. AFFC and ADWD took 5+ years, so IMO there was essentially zero chance ex ante that TWOW would have been finished in <3 years, and a low chance it would have been finished in <5 years (i.e. pre-2016).

bought Ṁ150 NO

Authored by GRRM, or finished by someone else?

bought Ṁ50 NO

That would be great. Let me know if it goes above 60%.

It did