It will be resolved yes if the official publication launch date is before 2026, and if it is also actually being sold in at least some bookstores before 2026.
1,000People are also trading
@Eliza Large No order at 10%. If you would be happy to see the book come out, you can bet against me!
@Eliza Healthy order at 7%, which is where this market was trading when I started making these orders. Any takers?
Between the recent blog posts and the leaks about publishing schedules for adjacent books, he will announce the book at world con and release the end of this year.
That's only at 7-11% today!
/MarkBowen/will-george-r-r-martin-or-his-publi
/JohannGoode/will-grrm-announce-winds-of-winter
And for releasing this year:
/_deleted_/will-george-rr-martin-publish-winds
/FernandoFrancoFelix/will-the-winds-of-winter-be-release-c7384b93b75f
Unlikely on priors. Book was allegedly a few months away from being done in 2016. So the book has been "almost done" for 6.5 years. By Laplace's law of succession (sort of), that implies a 23% chance that the book comes out in any given 1.5-year period.
If you count the full period since ADWD release (2011) as the reference class, that's 13 years, but I don't think that's the right reference class. AFFC and ADWD took 5+ years, so IMO there was essentially zero chance ex ante that TWOW would have been finished in <3 years, and a low chance it would have been finished in <5 years (i.e. pre-2016).