🏅 Top traders

@MaximLott resolves no.

@polymathematic All that shouting and all I got was less than 150 mana of profit.

@Eliza Large No order at 10%. If you would be happy to see the book come out, you can bet against me!

@Eliza Updated to a new one at 9%!

@Eliza Solid order at 8% open for the next week.

@Eliza Healthy order at 7%, which is where this market was trading when I started making these orders. Any takers?

Between the recent blog posts and the leaks about publishing schedules for adjacent books, he will announce the book at world con and release the end of this year.

That's only at 7-11% today!

/MarkBowen/will-george-r-r-martin-or-his-publi

/JohannGoode/will-grrm-announce-winds-of-winter

And for releasing this year:

/_deleted_/will-george-rr-martin-publish-winds

/FernandoFrancoFelix/will-the-winds-of-winter-be-release-c7384b93b75f

I’m releasing a very long and boring autobiographical account of how cold I was last January and titling it this.

Unlikely on priors. Book was allegedly a few months away from being done in 2016. So the book has been "almost done" for 6.5 years. By Laplace's law of succession (sort of), that implies a 23% chance that the book comes out in any given 1.5-year period.

If you count the full period since ADWD release (2011) as the reference class, that's 13 years, but I don't think that's the right reference class. AFFC and ADWD took 5+ years, so IMO there was essentially zero chance ex ante that TWOW would have been finished in <3 years, and a low chance it would have been finished in <5 years (i.e. pre-2016).

Authored by GRRM, or finished by someone else?

That would be great. Let me know if it goes above 60%.

It did