And now, onto the topic of why I bought No.....

I've spent numerous years believing fully that he's going to finish this stupid book, but anyone trying to read progress reports from his recent blog posts is in crazy town. This guy could not HELP himself from bragging about every page he finished writing on the previous book. He used to blog every single week, often multiple times per week or even per day. He was writing on his blog all the time. Happy. Excited to be working.

Today? His blog is dead. He's toast. Out of energy, hardly any progress updates at all. Anyone getting excited about offhand remarks in some recent posts is reading way, way, way too much into it. He's wishing he can do this, but I think if he was actually making legitimate progress toward completion, he would not be able to help himself.

Just go back to the blog from 12 or 15 years ago and see how different it is today compared to back then.

Haha, great points. I personally feel that enough new data has come up to lead me to believe that he's imminently close to done, as is described in this video here, but I'll admit that it's tenuous and vibes based.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IM9AZk6PIVo

I think the description can use some more clarity about what 'completion' means. Some authors announce completion of a first draft. Others announce completion of the final round of editing and the book being sent to printers. These things can be years apart.

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Possibly helpful background info:

The US publication date was announced on his blog on 3 March 2011:

https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2011/03/03/dragon-time/

The book was not done at that time. Later that spring, on 27 April 2011, he announced completion of the book with this post:

https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2011/04/27/twas-beauty/

The entire content of the post is a picture of a dead Kong. (Kong was his nickname for the project.) Then on 19 May 2011, he announced completion of the book again:

https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2011/05/19/talking-about-the-dance/

In this one he states that he's spent the time since 27 April doing all the editing and re-editing tasks and it is finally completely done.

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For the purposes of this market, what level of completion are we looking for?

"Announce the completion of 'The Winds of Winter'" refers to George R. R. Martin publicly declaring that he has finished writing the novel and that the manuscript has been delivered to his publisher for further steps in the publishing process, such as editing, proofreading, and formatting. This announcement should include a clear statement that the writing phase is complete, and the book is now in the hands of the publisher. Minor revisions, errata, or last-minute adjustments may still occur during the publishing process, but the primary writing phase should be considered finished at this point.

What if it's a lie though? He says it's finished to feel self-important but it's not actually finished?

Is it possible to resurrect the market after it’s closed if information changes? I don’t know what kind of systems we have in place to deal with lies.

yeah, mods can reresolve at that point

Sounds good, we’ll keep an eye on it in the comments after closing.

@Bayesian If it was an April Fools 'lie' that would be one thing, but I hope a market about an announcement actually resolves on the announcement. That's the benefit of 'announcement' markets -- you don't have to go back and change them if something goes wrong between announcement and implementation.

@Eliza fair!

@MarkBowen why do you think this isn't just a rumor?

I think it's just a rumor, but a very compelling rumor. His recent blog posts, his planned conference appearances, and noise on deuxmoi seem to be aligning.

fair enough. maybe im buynig it down too low. Maybe prob is 65%. probably not 90% tho

Definitely better strat than mine. I leave my m*****l*s brain at the door, and just think boolean here because it's a more fun crowd.

that's perfectly fine, as long as you're fine losing every so often

Yeah, I sometimes feel some guilt for corroding the epistmic space with my noise...maybe in a model of the market organism it might be good to have locally suboptimal behavior to bounce out of minima and groupthink?

That, and noise uh is said to fund the market makers, give them a reason to set the market price to an accurate value

I dont' think it corrodes the epistemic space. I'm concerned by people spending more than they can afford on manifold by treating it like gambling. 🤷‍♂️

I think we're safe from that until you can convert mana back to money. Until then, the only real risks would be dark patterns/gacha dynamics, and I think it's a boring enough interface to keep the dopamine hits slow and distant.

Hmmm, yeah, but then maybe people assume they'll def be able to cash out later, and when it turns out they can't they'll feel betrayed or wtv. not sure though

https://manifold.markets/Golkj/will-it-be-possible-to-convert-mana

51% right now for by 2025.

https://manifold.markets/nikki/will-someone-successfully-launder-m

71% for any method, legitimate or not, no timescale.