Resolution
Resolves to the share of US adults (18–64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).
If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers). Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031). Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
How phone and assistant usage counts
The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week. So:
Deliberately using a phone's default assistant (Gemini as the Android default, agentic Siri) counts if the respondent reports it. As OS assistants become genAI-powered, knowing conversational use should show up in this measure.
Ambient or passive AI — AI overviews in search, autocorrect, AI features silently embedded in apps — largely does not count unless respondents recognize and report it.
In other words: this market measures self-aware weekly use, not technical exposure. By 2030, ~all smartphone users will be technically exposed to genAI (it ships as the OS default); that is not what this resolves on. If the survey changes its wording to explicitly include or exclude default assistants, the market follows the survey.
Baselines (Nov 2025, RPS via the Fed)
50% of US adults used genAI for non-work purposes (any frequency)
41% of workers used it at work; 35% of workers weekly at work; 12% daily
Work usage grew ~31% year-over-year
For scale: ChatGPT alone reported 900M weekly active users in Feb 2026
Sources: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/monitoring-ai-adoption-in-the-u-s-economy-20260403.html · https://www.nber.org/papers/w32966 · https://9to5google.com/2025/12/19/google-assistant-gemini-2026/
1,000People are also trading
Resolving N/A: this market is an accidental duplicate of the copy with more traders, which has the same question, criteria and close date. N/A refunds every trade here. Please trade on that market instead.
@mods according to the guidelines, duplicates should not be N/Aed if people have traded on it but but rather they should be unlisted
@JasonMendoza2008 You're right, and I'm sorry. I shouldn't have N/A'd a duplicate that people had traded on. @mods, could you please unresolve this market so everyone's positions come back? Once it's reopened I'll unlist it and resolve it exactly like the copy I'm keeping.
@MaxGhenis Max, I can definitely do that for you but in this case I would like to share a couple relevant points before doing so, just in case they change your opinion. Pardon the extra back-and-forth:
The guidelines that Jason is referring to are not yet published at this time and only a draft, there's no official stance on duplicate markets and you're free to do whatever you want, either leave it N/A or leave it open and unlisted or anything else that is reasonable.
If I do un-N/A it, you will see a balance reduction of the 1,000 mana that you used to initially fund this market, and it will remain tied up indefinitely.
So basically, if you'd rather keep your 1,000 mana in your pocket, we can leave it N/A. If you don't mind, we can reopen it.
@Eliza Thanks, that context is helpful. I'm fine with the 1,000 mana staying tied up. People were holding positions here, so please reopen it, and also the 2027 robot-tax duplicate, which I N/A'd the same way. Once they're reopened I'll restore their original close dates, unlist them, and resolve each the same way as the market I'm keeping.