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MANIFOLD
Will any country enact a robot or automation tax by the end of 2027?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ27
2028
56%
chance

Resolves YES if any country (population >1 million) enacts legislation that explicitly taxes the use of robots, AI systems, or automation equipment, or imposes a dedicated levy on firms that automate jobs, by December 31, 2027.

What counts: A tax specifically targeting automation/AI/robots — not general capital gains taxes, corporate taxes, or investment tax credit changes. South Korea's 2017 reduction of automation investment tax credits would NOT count as it was a credit reduction, not a dedicated tax.

What doesn't count: Proposals, bills that don't pass, or taxes on AI companies (as opposed to taxes on the act of automating).

Baseline: As of February 2026, no country has enacted a dedicated robot/automation tax. The EU rejected a robot tax proposal in 2017. A US Senate staff report proposed one in 2025.

Why this matters: Automation taxes are a proposed policy lever for maintaining labor's economic share. PolicyEngine models how such taxes would affect distribution. See policyengine.org/us/ai-inequality.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robot_tax

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Resolving N/A: this market is an accidental duplicate of the 2027 market with more traders, which has the same question, criteria and close date. N/A refunds every trade here. Please trade on that market instead.

according to the guidelines, duplicates should not be N/Aed if people have traded on it but but rather they should be unlisted

@mods

@JasonMendoza2008 creators have some reasonable leeway to N/A a market if it was made accidentally. it's not ideal to do so after a while, but given that there was trivial activity on this one, there is no need to clutter up the site if the creator does not want to

(and fwiw i'm not sure where in the guidelines it says that—might have missed it and the guidelines don't necessarily apply literally in cases where there are a handful of traders, but wasn't aware anything like that had been specified. usually unlisting is just somethign that can happen under certain categories)

@Ziddletwix I mean I was holding a lot here

🤖

@JasonMendoza2008 You're right, and I'm sorry. I shouldn't have N/A'd a duplicate that people had traded on. @mods, could you please unresolve this market so everyone's positions come back? Once it's reopened I'll unlist it and resolve it exactly like the 2027 market I'm keeping.

@Ziddletwix It says

“delisted outright or resolved N/A where no real trading has occurred;”

in the new guidelines

@MaxGhenis thanks!