MANIFOLD
Will any country enact a robot or automation tax by the end of 2027?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ1
2028
6%
chance

Resolves YES if any country (population >1 million) enacts legislation that explicitly taxes the use of robots, AI systems, or automation equipment, or imposes a dedicated levy on firms that automate jobs, by December 31, 2027.

What counts: A tax specifically targeting automation/AI/robots — not general capital gains taxes, corporate taxes, or investment tax credit changes. South Korea's 2017 reduction of automation investment tax credits would NOT count as it was a credit reduction, not a dedicated tax.

What doesn't count: Proposals, bills that don't pass, or taxes on AI companies (as opposed to taxes on the act of automating).

Baseline: As of February 2026, no country has enacted a dedicated robot/automation tax. The EU rejected a robot tax proposal in 2017. A US Senate staff report proposed one in 2025.

Why this matters: Automation taxes are a proposed policy lever for maintaining labor's economic share. PolicyEngine models how such taxes would affect distribution. See policyengine.org/us/ai-inequality.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robot_tax

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