Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, prior to January 1, 2030, a reputable research institution or statistical agency (such as Pew Research Center, the U.S. Census Bureau, Gartner, or McKinsey) publishes data showing that at least 50% of adults in a major global economy (e.g., the United States) use generative AI tools on a daily basis.

Alternatively, the market will resolve to YES if generative AI features become natively integrated into primary personal computing or mobile operating systems (e.g., iOS, Android, Windows) and used daily by more than 50% of active users, as confirmed by official developer metrics or industry reports.

If no primary statistical report or official data confirms that daily usage or daily native integration has reached the 50% threshold among the measured adult population before January 1, 2030, the market will resolve to NO.

Note: The market creator may edit the specific survey source, geographic scope, or percentage threshold prior to resolution if a different explicit metric is desired.

Background

Since the public launch of large language models in late 2022, generative AI adoption has accelerated across consumer and enterprise sectors. By 2026, Pew Research Center found that 49% of U.S. adults used AI chatbots, with 24% using them at least daily. Similarly, workplace measurements showed over half of U.S. workers engaging with AI tools at least occasionally. Whether generative AI transitions from a frequently used software tool to a permanent daily baseline depends on long-term retention, OS-level integration, and sustained daily utility across the general population.