Will over 50% of households in any developed country use an AI assistant for daily decision-making by the end of 2030?
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This question aims to predict the penetration of AI assistants in everyday life within developed countries by the end of 2030. It focuses on whether more than half of the households will actively use AI technology for routine decision-making tasks, such as meal planning, budgeting, and other daily activities.


What is regarded as the use of AI assistant for daily decision-making tasks:

  • Decision-making tasks are activities where the AI assistant provides substantive input or suggestions that influence the user's choices. Examples include meal planning, budgeting, organizing schedules, personal shopping decisions, or health and fitness advice.

  • The task should involve an element of planning, analysis, or personalized recommendation, distinguishing it from basic commands or information retrieval.

  • The AI assistant must actively assist in these decision-making tasks. This involves interactive engagement where the AI understands user needs, processes information, and offers tailored advice or options.

Criteria for Resolution:

  • Resolution as "Yes":

    • Reliable data or studies are published by December 31, 2030, showing that over 50% of households in any developed country use AI assistants for daily tasks like meal planning and budgeting.

    • The usage of AI assistants should be active and regular, forming a part of routine household decision-making.

    • The data can come from credible sources such as government statistics, reputable market research firms, or major technology companies specializing in AI.

  • Resolution as "No":

    • Absence of data or reports indicating that the 50% threshold has been reached by the end of 2030.

    • Data or reports suggest that the usage of AI assistants in households remains below 50% in developed countries for the specified tasks.

Note:

If there is any opinion or idea you want to share about this question, please let me know in the comments.
Thank you!

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The stagnation of Siri is a major mystery to me. I’d love to use it more but it sucks. Is it because of some fundamental design/technical challenge that other companies will also run into (Alexa apparently did, given the layoffs)

predicts YES

@MatthewRitter
I think there are some fundamental differences between AI assistants like Siri, Alexa, and ChatGPT.
Siri and Alexa: These are like your voice-activated mobile apps. You can talk to them, and then, from certain words, some apps will be activated with specific requests.
ChatGPT: This is more like a text-based chat buddy that is trained with millions of books

So, I think Siri and Alexa are not that powerful because their method is technically not AI; it is more focused on voice recognition and Natural Language Processing. But, I think they are still capable of making better AI because they have a vast amount of user data available.

1. How many days a year do they need to use them on average?
2. Does it count if the decisionmaking is done in the background and invisible to the user? I.e. Google Maps already uses AI for route planning, does it count as a daily use of AI if I drive every day and use Maps for navigation?

AI assistant (not just AI)

@UselessTrash Is Siri an “AI assistant”?

predicts YES

@nsokolsky
Thank you for the comment!

For 1.: (If the research paper or data has good standards or reason to consider what is a daily use then that would be enough)
Regarding the frequency of usage, we would consider any evidence that defines a standard for the 'daily use' of AI assistants as valid.

For example, if a research paper or study establishes a benchmark such as '1,000 tokens per week' as a threshold for daily use, this would be a suitable criterion for our question. The key is that the usage is regular and integrated into daily routines, as evidenced by credible research or data.

For 2.:(AI assistants such as ChatGPT, LAMA, Mistral or other LLM would be considered)
The question focuses on AI assistants that actively assist in decision-making for daily activities, like ChatGPT, LAMA, Grok, or similar large language models.
The AI's role should be more direct and interactive in the decision-making process, such as assisting in meal planning, budgeting, or similar tasks. While AI components like those in Google Maps are indeed part of our daily lives, we're specifically looking for the AI assistant's decision-making process. So, it would be more up to how the researchers collect the data of daily decision-making using AI assistants.

In summary, to resolve the question, we would rely on data or studies that provide a clear definition of 'daily use' in the context of active decision-making. The source should justify its criteria with reasonable explanations, ensuring that we're capturing the true essence of how AI assistants are becoming an integral part of daily life in households.

predicts YES

@nsokolsky
Yes, I would consider Siri as an AI assistant. It definitely uses AI technology and NLP
Siri would be a great example of an AI assistant used for daily decision-making and tasks.

@Latte_Horse well, lots of people already have an Alexa or Siri at home and use it for alarms or whatnot. I think this question needs more specific critera.

predicts YES

@nsokolsky I see your point since there is already a lot of use of AI to some extent. I will refine the criteria for the question to specify what is regarded as a decision-making task and clarify the usage of AI assistants.

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