YES if the Budget announces that assets will no longer be rebased to market value on death for CGT, in full or in part.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.

Clarification, 11 October 2026. A CGT charge on gains accrued up to death (a deemed disposal at death) counts as abolishing the uplift, even if heirs then take market value as their base cost. Removing or capping the uplift for some assets or estates only counts as 'in part'. The already-legislated inclusion of pensions in inheritance tax from April 2027 does not count. The creator holds 36.0 NO shares in this market. Where the existing words left a choice, the reading above goes against that position.