YES only if the announced main CGT rates equal the income tax rates (20%, 40%, 45%) from some announced start date.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.

Clarification, 11 October 2026. YES needs the main rates on gains for basic, higher and additional-rate taxpayers to be 20%, 40% and 45% from a stated date; a phased path counts if it ends there. Allowances, indexation or reliefs that reduce the taxable gain, including Business Asset Disposal Relief, do not prevent YES. Aligning only one class of asset while the main rates stay below 20%, 40% and 45% resolves NO. The creator holds 38.9 NO shares in this market. Where the existing words left a choice, the reading above goes against that position.