YES if the Budget reduces the 25% tax-free share or lowers the £268,275 lump sum allowance.
Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.
The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.
If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.
Clarification, 11 October 2026. A reduction that applies only to some savers (for example future accrual, larger pots or higher earners) counts. Keeping the £268,275 allowance at its cash level, changing only the lump sum and death benefit allowance, and the inheritance tax treatment of pensions already legislated from 6 April 2027 do not count. The creator holds 36.0 NO shares in this market. Where the existing words left a choice, the reading above goes against that position.
1,000Clarification added to the description (11 October 2026). A reduction that applies only to some savers (for example future accrual, larger pots or higher earners) counts. Keeping the £268,275 allowance at its cash level, changing only the lump sum and death benefit allowance, and the inheritance tax treatment of pensions already legislated from 6 April 2027 do not count. The creator holds 36.0 NO shares in this market. Where the existing words left a choice, the reading above goes against that position.