YES if the Budget raises the bank corporation tax surcharge rate or the bank levy rate, or introduces a new tax on bank profits or reserves.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.

Clarification, 11 October 2026. As the description says, only a higher bank surcharge rate, a higher bank levy rate, or a new tax on bank profits or reserves counts. Changing only the surcharge allowance, existing loss relief (including the use of deferred tax assets), or the interest the Bank of England pays on reserves does not count. A temporary tax, or one applying only to some banks, counts if it meets one of those three tests. The creator holds 49.1 NO shares in this market.