YES if the Budget raises none of: the basic, higher or additional rate of income tax on earnings; the main or additional employee NICs rate; the standard rate of VAT. Threshold changes, and rate changes on dividend, savings or property income, do not affect this market.
Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.
The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.
If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.
Clarification, 11 October 2026. For this market the 'measure' in the shared resolution paragraph is a rise in any listed rate: the market resolves NO if the speech or Budget documents announce such a rise, with any start date. Following that paragraph's words, a consultation, review or call for evidence on raising a listed rate also resolves NO. A new, higher income tax rate on any band of earnings (for example a 50% rate above a threshold) counts as a rise. A cut to a listed rate does not count, because the test is that the Budget raises none of them. Threshold changes, self-employed (Class 4) NICs rates and rates set by the Scottish Parliament or the Senedd do not affect this market. The creator holds 37.7 YES shares in this market. Where the existing words left a choice, the reading above goes against that position.
1,000Clarification added to the description (11 October 2026). For this market the 'measure' in the shared resolution paragraph is a rise in any listed rate: the market resolves NO if the speech or Budget documents announce such a rise, with any start date. Following that paragraph's words, a consultation, review or call for evidence on raising a listed rate also resolves NO. A new, higher income tax rate on any band of earnings (for example a 50% rate above a threshold) counts as a rise. A cut to a listed rate does not count, because the test is that the Budget raises none of them. Threshold changes, self-employed (Class 4) NICs rates and rates set by the Scottish Parliament or the Senedd do not affect this market. The creator holds 37.7 YES shares in this market. Where the existing words left a choice, the reading above goes against that position.