YES if the Budget lowers the 15% employer rate or raises the £5,000 secondary threshold for employers generally. Sector-specific reliefs resolve NO.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.

Clarification, 11 October 2026. Changes to the Employment Allowance do not count. Raising the £5,000 secondary threshold counts with any start date, including by restoring indexation. A lower rate or a higher threshold that any employer can use for particular employees (for example workers under 25) counts, because it is not sector-specific. A relief limited to particular sectors or particular employers resolves NO. The creator holds 36.8 NO shares in this market. Where the existing words left a choice, the reading above goes against that position.