YES if the Budget announces a National Insurance charge, or a new levy described as equivalent to one, on property, investment or pension income.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.

Clarification, 11 October 2026. Increases to existing income tax rates on property, savings or dividend income do not count, even if justified by the absence of National Insurance on that income; another market covers those rates. National Insurance on earnings does not count, including on pay sacrificed into pensions, on the earnings of people over State Pension age, and on self-employment or partnership profits. A new levy counts if it is charged on property, investment or pension income and the speech or Budget documents describe it as equivalent to National Insurance. The creator holds 50.2 NO shares in this market.