Refers to the High Value Council Tax Surcharge (England) announced in November 2025 with a £2m threshold. YES if the Budget sets the entry threshold below £2m. The Times reported on 18 Sep 2026 that £1.5m was under discussion.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.

Clarification, 11 October 2026. This market concerns only the High Value Council Tax Surcharge entry threshold. A threshold below £2 million, including a new lower surcharge band, resolves YES whatever date it takes effect. New or changed ordinary council tax bands, changes to the surcharge's charges or to its bands above £2 million, and a change of valuation date with the £2 million figure unchanged resolve NO. The creator holds 94.9 NO shares in this market.