Budget 2025 said pensioners whose sole income is the basic or new State Pension without any increments would not have to pay small amounts of income tax via Simple Assessment from 2027-28. Pensions minister Torsten Bell said on 15 Sep 2026 that the Chancellor would set out at the Budget how this will be delivered. YES if the Budget speech or documents state that the protection, however it is delivered (a relief, allowance, disregard, or HMRC not assessing or collecting the tax), also covers people outside that group: for example people whose State Pension includes increments or additional State Pension, or people with some private pension, earnings or savings income. Protection means not having to pay the tax, not a different way of collecting it. If the definition of who is covered is unclear on this point, the most detailed definition published on Budget day (for example in a tax information and impact note) governs; if that is still unclear, resolves NO. Restating the commitment in general terms, such as 'pensioners whose incomes only just exceed the Personal Allowance' or 'low-income pensioners', does not by itself show that people outside that group are covered. A general rise in the personal allowance for everyone does not count. A pensioner-only allowance that covers people outside the Budget 2025 group counts here; under its 11 October clarification, the personal allowance market resolves NO on such an allowance. NO if the Budget keeps the Budget 2025 group.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.