YES if the Budget announces a cash cut to any working-age benefit rate, or an April 2027 uprating below September 2026 CPI for any working-age benefit. Changes to eligibility or assessments alone resolve NO.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.

Clarification, 11 October 2026. A below-CPI April 2027 amount for a working-age benefit counts if the Budget speech or the named Budget documents state it, including where it was already set in law (for example the universal credit health element frozen by the Universal Credit Act 2025), because a measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. Existing law that the speech and those documents do not mention does not count by itself. Setting a lower cash amount for a subgroup of claimants is a cash cut. Removing entitlement for a group is an eligibility change and resolves NO.