The bank corporation tax surcharge is charged at 3% on banks' taxable profits above a £100 million group allowance. The Guardian reported on 15 October 2026 that industry figures expect Healey to raise it back to 8%, and Bloomberg reported that a bank tax rise is among the measures submitted to the OBR. YES if the Budget sets the surcharge rate at 8% or more, from any date. If the surcharge has more than one rate (for example a higher rate on profits above a higher allowance, or different rates for different banks), YES if any of them is 8% or more. A rise to a rate below 8% resolves NO, as do changes only to the allowance, changes to the bank levy, and a new tax on bank profits of a different kind. The separate bank taxes market resolves YES on a surcharge rise to any rate, a higher bank levy rate, or a new tax on bank profits or reserves, but not on a change only to the allowance.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.