YES if the Budget raises the cap on 100% agricultural and business property relief that took effect in April 2026, or reverses it in part or in full.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.

Clarification, 11 October 2026. The baseline is the £2.5 million allowance for 100% agricultural and business property relief in force since April 2026, including existing transferability between spouses and civil partners and 50% relief above the available allowance. Reconfirming it alone resolves NO. Raising the allowance, increasing relief above the allowance, restoring uncapped 100% relief for some qualifying property, or expanding transferability so that more property qualifies for 100% relief resolves YES. Changes only to instalment payments, farm spending, or the separate relief for shares outside that allowance resolve NO.