YES if the Budget announces a personal allowance above £12,570 taking effect on or before 6 April 2028. Advisers split on this: S&W rated it moderate and BDO rated it low.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.

Clarification, 11 October 2026. 'Personal allowance' means the standard Personal Allowance available to individuals regardless of age or source of income (currently £12,570, subject to the existing taper above £100,000 of income). YES requires that standard allowance to be set above £12,570 from a date on or before 6 April 2028, including by ending the freeze early. An allowance, exemption, disregard, de minimis rule or non-collection arrangement that applies only to pensioners or only to State Pension income resolves NO. No one had traded this market when this was added.