From 6 April 2029, employee and employer National Insurance will be charged on pension contributions made through salary sacrifice above £2,000 a year, under the National Insurance Contributions (Employer Pensions Contributions) Act 2026. Budget 2025 scored the cap as raising £4,845 million in 2029-30. YES if the Budget announces any change to the cap: a different limit, an earlier or later start date, its removal, or a change to who it applies to (for example exempting lower earners or particular employers). Restating the existing cap, or changing only how it is administered or reported, resolves NO. Changes to salary sacrifice for anything other than pension contributions, such as electric cars, do not count.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.