YES if HM Treasury's policy decisions table shows a fuel duty measure with a negative Exchequer impact in 2027-28 (a freeze, a cancelled or delayed increase, or a cut). Polymarket asks the opposite question (a fuel duty increase) and priced it at 28.5% on 21 Sep 2026.
Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.
The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.
If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.
Clarification, 11 October 2026. As the description says, this resolves on the 2027-28 column of HM Treasury's policy decisions table: if any fuel duty line shows a negative 2027-28 figure it resolves YES, and otherwise NO. A relief that ends by 31 March 2027 normally scores nothing in 2027-28. So, for example, keeping the 5p cut until 31 March 2027 and then returning to 57.95p with the planned April 2027 RPI rise resolves NO, unless the table nonetheless prints a negative 2027-28 figure for it. Cancelling or delaying the April 2027 RPI rise, or keeping any part of the 5p cut after 31 March 2027, would score in 2027-28 and resolve YES. Rebated rates (such as red diesel) and fuel duty reliefs are fuel duty measures. An entry of zero, '*' or 'negligible' is not negative. If a fuel duty change shares a line with other measures, its own 2027-28 figure in the policy costings document decides.
1,000Clarification added to the description (11 October 2026). As the description says, this resolves on the 2027-28 column of HM Treasury's policy decisions table: if any fuel duty line shows a negative 2027-28 figure it resolves YES, and otherwise NO. A relief that ends by 31 March 2027 normally scores nothing in 2027-28. So, for example, keeping the 5p cut until 31 March 2027 and then returning to 57.95p with the planned April 2027 RPI rise resolves NO, unless the table nonetheless prints a negative 2027-28 figure for it. Cancelling or delaying the April 2027 RPI rise, or keeping any part of the 5p cut after 31 March 2027, would score in 2027-28 and resolve YES. Rebated rates (such as red diesel) and fuel duty reliefs are fuel duty measures. An entry of zero, '*' or 'negligible' is not negative. If a fuel duty change shares a line with other measures, its own 2027-28 figure in the policy costings document decides.