YES if the Budget raises the £12,000 Small Business Rates Relief threshold, or extends the 20% relief announced in July 2026 for pubs, clubs and live music venues to other sectors such as cafes, restaurants or hotels. England only.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.

Clarification, 11 October 2026. (1) The threshold is the £12,000 rateable value up to which 100% Small Business Rates Relief applies; raising only the taper's upper limit, or a slice system that keeps 100% relief at £12,000, resolves NO. (2) Extending the relief for pubs, clubs and live music venues announced in July 2026 to at least one further property type (for example cafes, restaurants, hotels or bookshops) resolves YES, including at a percentage above 20%; a relief of a different kind or at a lower percentage does not count. (3) Changes to multipliers, transitional relief, valuations or grants resolve NO. The creator holds 24.2 YES shares in this market. Where the existing words left a choice, the reading above goes against that position.