LHA rates have been frozen since April 2024. YES if the Budget announces that LHA rates will rise from April 2027 or earlier, for example by relinking them to the 30th percentile of local rents.

Resolution. Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates). A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it. A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.

This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.

The creator may trade in this market. Resolution follows the sources named above.

If the Budget moves to another date in 2026, this market follows it and the close time moves with it. If no Budget is delivered by 31 December 2026, resolves N/A. Created by Max Ghenis of PolicyEngine (https://www.policyengine.org/uk) as a public record of what PolicyEngine expected before the Budget.

Clarification, 11 October 2026. Any increase to Local Housing Allowance rates taking effect by April 2027, full or partial (a CPI uprating, increases in some areas, or higher national caps), resolves YES if it is in the speech or the listed Treasury documents. A decision announced only in a DWP statement, or after Budget day, does not count. Extra Discretionary Housing Payments, homelessness funding or benefit cap changes do not count. The creator holds 40.6 NO shares in this market.