Robin Hanson has been skeptical of AGI soon. For example https://x.com/robinhanson/status/1862901360389144861 .

Will he change his mind this year? For example, if he says "wow, those people freaking out about AGI soon were more right than I was" that counts. If he updates slightly but still e.g. thinks Ems will be first, that doesn't count.

I will resolve YES/NO by poll majority with me as the tiebreaker.
Poll answers should be based on Hanson's public statements. If needed, I'll ask him in December 2025, and that may produce a yes/no answer, which should make the poll easy.

A later reversed change of mind also counts, so if it's giving clear YES, I might run a poll early.